TMG (or just "Merlin") is an Excel-based quantitative trading program that utilizes an extensive array of price-based and breadth-based technical indicators in a proprietary rule weighted algorithm to generate a daily signal for trading the Powershares QQQ ETF (Symbol: QQQQ, formerly Nasdaq 100 Trust) and related trading instruments. The system maximizes the historical and statistical correlation to Truth for optimal market performance against the NDX since Jan 2003. Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, system gains for the live signal if traded at 1X since early Feb 2008 would be ~ 121.25% through the end of 2008, which is just slightly below the system equity high achieved in late October. The below chart shows the results for the live signal if traded *exactly* as published, i.e. EOD signal, NDO trade, with and without comprehensive and integrated Loss, Profit, and Gap Stops. Algorithm enhancements and improvements are made periodically as a part of an ongoing continuous process improvement program. Daily live trades since Feb 2008 and backtested results prior to that time (the current version of the program was not in existence previously) can be viewed at the "TMG Live and Backtested Results" link below. Utilizing leveraged instruments such as the ProShares 2X Long/Short ETFs (QLD/QID) or up to 100% margin, returns could be significantly increased, and since the ETFs do not have a time-decay component, the investor is not exposed to the higher risks and complexities of futures/options trading, although many subscribers effectively employ the system to execute profitable trading strategies using those vehicles as well.



Current assessment: As the recent record market volatility has subsided, the system has recovered almost back to early November levels. These flat-to-down periods are not unlike that which the system has experienced from time-to-time in the past, but over the longer term, the trend has always remained steadily up. The system has always recovered from these temporary downturns and then gone on to new highs, and the recent upturn in the equity curve suggests that will be the case this time as well. As long as patience and trading discipline are maintained, the system should continue to be profitable over any reasonable evaluation period.

Please click on the following link to view up-to-date detailed live performance data.

TMG Live and Backtested Results (updated ~ weekly, this Excel file shows the 1X and 2X results with and without Stops; backtested prior to 2/6/08, live signal since)