The TMTG signal is derived exclusively from an Excel-based quantitative trading program named "Merlin" which consists of an extensive array of price-based and breadth-based technical indicators in a proprietary rule-weighted algorithm for trading the Powershares QQQ ETF (Symbol: QQQQ, formerly Nasdaq 100 Trust) and related trading instruments. The basic concept of the system design is that the market exhibits both random and statistical behaviors that are constantly varying and non-deterministic, but that over time, the statistical portion can be modeled reasonably accurately such that an overall day-to-day signal success rate of ~ 65% or greater can be achieved. Within the primary design constraint of non-clairvoyance, the system is highly optimized to maximize historical and statistical correlation to Truth as compared to the NDX (NASDAQ 100) since Jan 2003. The basic system trades daily at either EOD or NDO and at 1X or 2X margin depending on prevailing market conditions, which significantly mitigates the detrimental effects of overnight gaps and improves long term performance, and for the more active trader, a separate overnight trading strategy is also incorporated. Successful trading depends not only on knowing when to trade but when not to trade, and a comprehensive Equity Stop strategy is integrated which seeks to eliminate the higher risk trades, such as holding a Long position when the market has become extremely overbought. The graph below shows the trailing six months equity growth of the "as published" daily Merlin signal, with applicable equity stops, which have evolved over the period of the back test, applied retroactively. The equity stops can be thought of as a "filter" which, while not changing the basic signal, significantly improves its efficacy. Algorithm enhancements are made periodically as a part of an ongoing continuous process improvement program. An Excel file from which this graph is generated can be viewed and/or downloaded at the "Live and Backtested Results" link below.



Please click on the following link to view up-to-date detailed live performance data.

Live and Backtested Results (updated ~ weekly, this Excel file shows the 1X and 2X results with and without Stops; backtested prior to 2/6/08, live signal since)